Facebook's popularity fades; LinkedIn's long term prospects look stronger

I’m really shocked at how many people in the last year have told me they think Facebook is going to be the new way people interact with the web.  This is patently absurd.  

You can’t be the social network for everyone.  Otherwise you’re not really a social network; you’re just a walled garden like AOL.  And like all walled gardens, people will eventually leave you for open pastures.

MySpace is the social network for high-schoolers.  Facebook is the social network for college kids.  LinkedIn will be the next big social network as the Facebook - née MySpace - generation graduates from college and looks for something more professional.

Eventually we’ll probably have a AARP social network, but I imagine that will take awhile.

Of the three networks, I think LinkedIn has the greatest prospects.  MySpace and Facebook grew rapidly because high school and college are both intense social experiences; but they are so intense because they are also limited to 4-6 years generally.

Your professional life will, on the other hand, will go on for decades.  LinkedIn’s growth has been much slower than the other two networks, but its growth is taking off.  And I suspect its members are going to find they have a much longer, more engaging relationship with this network than their high school and college flings past.